By: Nathaniel Ballantyne
Since World War II, only two Incumbent presidents have not won reelection – Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Bush was really a third term, having succeeded Ronald Reagan. Really, only Jimmy Carter had been denied a second term. Liberal media has practically written DONALD TRUMP, political obituary. But in about a week, the world may be in for a 2020 surprise; DONALD TRUMP could possibly win a convincing second term, and it would not be the end of the world.
If you are thinking Biden will win because of the current national polls showing him winning, well, let me remind you that polls cannot be trusted and are very deceptive. Even if voters could trust the polls, it would have to be the right poll in battleground states that eventually decides the winner. Let’s take a walk down memory lane.
On October 18, 2016, the New York Times gave Hilary Clinton a ninety-one-per-cent chance of beating DONALD TRUMP. Five days later, ABC News released a tracking poll showing her ahead of Trump by twelve points. We know what happened now the same pollsters are telling us we should trust them and that Biden is going to win.
If 2016 taught us anything, it’s that national polls are deceptive. Clinton was projected to beat Trump in the popular vote by about three percentage points, which was largely correct. But, since U.S. elections are not popularity contests, a better way to assess a candidate’s chances is to look at voters’ polls in battleground states, where, ultimately, the race will be determined.
TRUMP is leading in some of the battleground states like Texas and tied with Biden in Florida and Ohio. Florida started early voting this week, and Republicans are coming out in waves to vote for TRUMP. The truth is no one knows for sure who will win, and as in 2016, we may be in for a surprise. Liberal political pundits said that TRUMP will lose not necessarily because of the FAKE POLLS but because people now know who TRUMP is as if they did not know in 2016. Trump is the man who joked about grabbing women by the genitals a week before the election and still won.
It is highly possible that TRUMP will probably win by a larger margin than he did in 2016. For one, Democrats are not that excited about Biden. A vote for Biden is really an expression of hate against Trump just like my sister told me a few days ago, she is voting for Biden not out of admiration but because she dislikes Trump. Second, TRUMP voters are like cultists. They love TRUMP and, therefore, are more motivated. Third, despite what you may have read in the liberal media, black voters will probably vote for Trump at a higher percentage than any Republican presidential candidate in recent memory.
I have spoken to many black men and women who, while they do not like TRUMP rhetoric they praised him for passing the First Step Act, rescuing Historically Black Colleges and University from bankruptcy, and creating jobs (pre-COVID) as well as keeping their taxes low. Rappers Fifty Cent and ICE CUBE endorsed TRUMP, and these endorsements cannot be disregarded as inconsequential because these rappers are very influential, especially among black men.
The biggest November surprise may be a second term for DONALD J. TRUMP, which will be historically correct because incumbents generally win a second term.