By: Nathaniel Ballantyne
As Donald Trump is holding a live town hall meeting, it has become increasingly apparent that he cannot win. The writing is on the wall – Donald Trump will be a one-term president. It is impossible for Donald Trump to win a second term. All polls indicate that Donald Trump will suffer the most embarrassing and devastating political defeat in a generation. The latest WSJ/NBC News poll shows Joe Biden with a double-digit lead among registered voters over President Trump less than three weeks from Election Day.
Biden leaped ahead by double digits after the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, followed by a contentious first debate and the president testing positive for the Coronavirus.
Normally, the party occupies the White House has a good chance of winning re-election unless the economy is in terrible shape. But this election season, things are very different. While 50% of Americans said they are better off economically than they were four years ago, 60% said the country is heading in the wrong direction. Polls suggest that Americans believe that Republicans are the best steward of the economy and voters give Republicans a 13 point advantage but yet they are not favoring Republicans to win.
Some 50% say they are better off than they were four years ago, compared with 34% who say they are worse off. However, 58% say the country is worse off than four years ago, compared with 38% who say it is better off. Moreover, more than 60% of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction. This election season, voters do not seem to be voting based on the economy.
In 2016 Trump won seniors by seven points. Now he’s in a tight race where seniors favor Biden by several points both in national polls and in many battleground states such as Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Now, three weeks before the election, Trump must grapple with the inevitable – an embarrassing defeat to a man he wondered earlier today “How do you lose to a guy like this?” Trump’s obsession with television and social media seems to work against him.
On Monday, October 12, in an effort to close the polling gap with Biden, the Trump campaign unleashed a slate of television ads targeting seniors. Last week during a ceremony in the White House, he professed his love for seniors, “my favorite people in the world,” and promised them free treatment for the Coronavirus.
As fast as he asked seniors to support him, he blew it with them when he shared a meme on twitter featuring Biden’s picture superimposed on an elderly man in a wheelchair at a nursing home.
In addition, Biden has had a massive advantage over Trump since early July. His campaign unleashed TV ads targeting specifically senior citizens in battleground states. His campaign spent roughly $45 million over the fall on broadcast and cable. Trump’s TV spending on seniors was far less because of a lack of money.
Earlier this week, the Trump campaign released an ad featuring Doctor ANTHONY FAUCI, designed to attract seniors. Dr. FAUCI publicly asked for the ad to be taken down because he said the ad misrepresented what he said about the virus a few months ago.
Though these are small mishaps, it explains why Trump’s most reliable supporters are turning against him. Trump is losing with every group except white men with a high school diploma, and those are not enough to make the difference.
Trump is losing among suburban white women by nearly two to one. Trump jokingly said, “suburban white women, please love me, I saved your damn neighborhoods,” but suburban white women aren’t listening because they support Joe Biden. Minority voters, Hispanics, Blacks, and Asians are not supporting Trump either.