TEXAS: Biden 47%, Trump 47%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 43%
TEXAS SENATE: Cornyn 49%, Hegar 43%
In the home stretch of the 2020 presidential election campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden is in a tied race with President Donald Trump in the reliably red state of Texas, and he holds a single digit lead in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls conducted in both states.
TEXAS PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Today, Trump and Biden are tied 47 – 47 percent among likely voters. This compares to a September 24th poll of likely voters in Texas when Trump had 50 percent, and Biden had 45 percent.
Among those who will vote in person on Election Day, 62 percent support Trump and 32 percent support Biden. Among those who are voting by mail or absentee ballot, 63 percent say they support Biden, and 31 percent support Trump. Among those who are voting at an early voting location, 48 percent support Biden, and 46 percent support Trump.
“Biden and Trump find themselves in a Texas stand-off, setting the stage for a bare-knuckle battle for 38 electoral votes,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Likely voters have mixed views of both candidates, but opinions of Biden have improved since last month.
Today, they give Biden a mixed favorability rating, with 44 percent said favorable, and 46 percent said unfavorable. This compares to a negative 41 – 52 percent favorability rating in a September 24th survey. Today, likely voters give Trump a mixed favorability rating, with 48 percent saying favorable and 47 percent saying unfavorable, virtually unchanged since September’s 49 – 47 percent score.
Likely voters are also mixed on whether or not either candidate has good leadership skills. For Biden, 48 percent say “yes” and 46 percent say “no.” For Trump, 49 percent say “yes” and 48 percent say “no.”
Biden cares about average Americans, likely voters say 56 – 38 percent, while they are more divided on Trump, saying 51 – 47 percent that he cares about average Americans.
TEXAS: VOTING IN 2020
In Texas, 69 percent of likely voters say they have cast or plan to cast their ballot at an early voting location, while 18 percent say they plan to vote in person on Election Day, and 12 percent say they have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot.
TEXAS: TRUMP HANDLING JOB & CORONAVIRUS
Likely voters are split on how Trump is handling his job as president, with 49 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving. That is basically unchanged from a September 24th survey when voters were divided as 50 percent approved, and 48 percent disapproved.
On Trump’s handling of the coronavirus response, likely voters give him a slightly negative approval with 46 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. That compares to a split score in September, when it was 49 – 49 percent.
TEXAS: CORNYN VS. HEGAR
In Texas’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican John Cornyn leads Democrat M.J. Hegar among likely voters, 49 – 43 percent. Seven percent are undecided. On September 24th, Cornyn had 50 percent support, and Hegar had 42 percent, also with 7 percent undecided.
Likely voters give Hegar a positive 33 – 26 percent favorability rating, while 39 percent say they haven’t heard enough about her to form an opinion. In September, voters gave her a positive 29 – 19 percent favorability rating while 50 percent hadn’t heard enough about her.
Likely voters give Cornyn a positive 42 – 30 percent favorability rating, while 26 percent say they haven’t heard enough about him. In September, they gave him a 39 – 30 percent favorability rating, while 30 percent hadn’t heard enough about him.
“While Cornyn maintains a lead, there are still two weeks to go, and you can’t count Hegar out,” added Malloy.
PENNSYLVANIA PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Likely voters in Pennsylvania support Biden 51 – 43 percent over Trump, with 5 percent saying they are undecided. In an October 7th poll following the first presidential debate and President Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, likely voters supported Biden 54 – 41 percent. In a previous September 3rd poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden led 52 – 44 percent.
Among those who are voting in person on Election Day, 32 percent support Biden while 63 percent support Trump.
Among those who are voting by mail or absentee ballot, 79 percent support Biden while 13 percent support Trump.
“That post-debate bounce that boosted Joe Biden’s lead to double-digits has fizzled, rewinding the race in Pennsylvania to where it was in September. Biden’s support remains above 50 percent as President Trump tries to change the trajectory in a crucial state where he receives poor grades on his job performance and his handling of the coronavirus response,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.
Biden gets a positive 50 – 44 percent favorability rating. In the October 7th survey, he received a positive 51 – 42 percent favorability rating. Trump gets a negative 43 – 54 percent favorability rating. In the October 7th survey, he received a negative 41 – 55 percent favorability rating.
Likely voters say 51 – 44 percent that Biden has good leadership skills, but say 56 – 41 percent that Trump does not have good leadership skills.
Likely voters say 60 – 36 percent that Biden cares about average Americans, but say 53 – 45 percent that Trump does not care about average Americans.
PENNSYLVANIA: VOTING IN 2020
In Pennsylvania, 60 percent of likely voters say they plan to vote in person on Election Day, and 40 percent say they have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot.
PENNSYLVANIA: TRUMP HANDLING JOB & CORONAVIRUS
Likely voters in Pennsylvania disapprove 53 – 44 percent of the way Trump is handling his job. On October 7th, they disapproved 56 – 41 percent. Today, they also disapprove 56 – 42 percent of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus response. On October 7th, they disapproved 58 – 40 percent.
From October 16th – 19th:
- 1,241 likely voters in Pennsylvania were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points;
- 1,145 likely voters in Texas were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
Democrats should feel comfortable given the current polls, but they are not ruling out a second term for Trump. It’s still close enough in the battlegrounds that Trump could win; because of that, many Democrats are wary about being overconfident, especially people inside the Biden campaign.
One senior Biden adviser offered a range of estimates that put things in perspective. He said he thought Biden could win 413 electoral votes, which would be the largest electoral vote victory since 1988 when George H. W. Bush crushed Michael Dukakis. But he also noted that Trump still could have a path to reelection. “I think Trump’s EV ceiling is 283,” he said